Predicting energy performance of residential buildings

Friday, July 10, 2015

A new study emphasizing the value of predictive analytics for predicting energy consumption, co-authored with M. Castelli, L. Trujillo, and L. Vanneschi, is scheduled to appear in September 2015 issue of Energy and Buildings. The work titled Prediction of energy performance of residential buildings: A genetic programming approach shows – through an experimental research based on real-data – how utilizing predictive analytics can assist the prediction of energy consumption in residential buildings. Abstract:

Energy consumption has long been emphasized as an important policy issue in today’s economies. In particular, the energy efficiency of residential buildings is considered a top priority of a country’s energy policy. The paper proposes a genetic programming-based framework for estimating the energy performance of residential buildings. The objective is to build a model able to predict the heating load and the cooling load of residential buildings. An accurate prediction of these parameters facilitates a better control of energy consumption and, moreover, it helps choosing the energy supplier that better fits the energy needs, which is considered an important issue in the deregulated energy market. The proposed framework blends a recently developed version of genetic programming with a local search method and linear scaling. The resulting system enables us to build a model that produces an accurate estimation of both considered parameters. Extensive simulations on 768 diverse residential buildings confirm the suitability of the proposed method in predicting heating load and cooling load. In particular, the proposed method is more accurate than the existing state-of-the-art techniques.

Aleš Popovič

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